MTN Consulting is focused on network operators & their technology supply chains, tracking the economics of the network operator business and assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. Our coverage includes:

3 major network operator markets

  • Telecom Network Operator (TNO)
  • Webscale Network Operator (WNO)
  • Carrier-Neutral Network Operator (CNNO)

190+ operators

Across the three major network operator markets in all key regions

40+ time series

10+ years’ market- and operator-wise data across quarters and years starting 2011

~50 reports published per year

  • Market data and insight reports spanning –
  • quarterly market reviews
  • operator and vendor deep dives
  • benchmarking and strategic assessments
  • forecast/outlook analysis
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Latest report

Webscale Market Tracker, 1Q25: AI FOMO pushes 12 month capex to $340B, passing telco market

Big tech’s webscale buildout keeps breaking records. In 1Q25, the 22 companies in our Webscale Tracker, including new entrant CoreWeave, generated $652 billion (B) in revenue (+9.2% YoY), spent $97B on capex (+67.2%), poured $84B into R&D (+12.2%), and held $635B in cash (-3.6%) against $560B in debt (+1.3%). Net PP&E surged 32.9% YoY to nearly $1 trillion. Headcount hit 4.17M, flat YoY. 🔹 Revenue: Growth Concentrated in the Big Four 1Q25 revenue hit $651.6B (+9.2% YoY), pushing annualized sales to $2.65T. Coreweave and Yandex posted the fastest growth, but the heavy lifting came from Alphabet (annualized revenues up 13.1% vs. 2Q23-2Q24), Amazon (+10.1%), Meta (+19.4%), and Microsoft (+14.1%). Amazon added the most dollars: up $12.4B YoY to $155.7B (+8.6%). At the other end: Fujitsu’s revenue dropped 18.7% as it retreats from cloud and data center services. Baidu, eBay, and IBM posted sub-2% growth. 🔹 Capex: AI Hype Sends Spending Soaring Capex skyrocketed 67.2% YoY in 1Q25 to $96.6B, annualizing to $343B, up 65% from a year ago and setting another all-time high. The AI frenzy, sparked by ChatGPT and fanned by investors, is now a dominant force. GPU spend is through the roof. US webscalers are spending like the proverbial drunken sailor, fueled by subsidies and hype, and enabled by what many view is widespread intellectual property theft. Top 1Q25 capex outlays came from Amazon ($25.0B), Alphabet ($17.2B), Microsoft ($16.7B), and Meta ($12.9B. Together, that is 74% of the total. Notably, 58% of annualized capex was for IT/network/software infrastructure (vs. 55% in 1Q24, 49% in 1Q23), showing a focus on retrofitting existing data centers for AI. 🔹 Profitability: Margins Under Pressure from Capex Free cash flow margins dipped to 15.2% in 1Q25 (annualized), down from 18.9% a year earlier. Net profit margins averaged a healthy 20.7% over the last four quarters. Alphabet led with $34.5B in net income (+46% YoY), a political liability as antitrust scrutiny intensifies. Meta, Microsoft, Tencent, and Apple topped the FCF leaderboard. Amazon and Alibaba were mid-tier, while HPE and Baidu brought up the rear. Debt vs. cash positions remain solid overall, but some players (Apple, Oracle, IBM, Coreweave) are deeply leveraged and vulnerable if the AI bubble bursts. 🔹 Employment: Flat Growth, Automation Looms Webscale employment hit 4.17M, up just 0.2% YoY. Alibaba’s 39% headcount drop (via Sun Art divestment) offset growth elsewhere. Despite massive AI investment, workforce growth has plateaued since 2021. Automation and robotics are gaining ground, especially in logistics. We expect modest headcount gains in 2025, then a steady decline. 🔹 Regional Trends: Asia Rebounds Asia-Pacific’s drag is easing: regional revenue grew 7% YoY in 1Q25, narrowing the gap with global growth (+9%). The Americas, Europe, and MEA remain in the low double-digit range. With strong government backing, Tencent and Alibaba are poised to accelerate Asia’s momentum through 2026.

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MTN Consulting is focused on network operators & their technology supply chains, tracking the economics of the network operator business and assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. Our coverage includes:

  • 3 major network operator markets
  • 190+ operators
  • 40+ time series
  • 50 reports published per year

Latest report

Webscale Market Tracker, 1Q25: AI FOMO pushes 12 month capex to $340B, passing telco market

Big tech’s webscale buildout keeps breaking records. In 1Q25, the 22 companies in our Webscale Tracker, including new entrant CoreWeave, generated $652 billion (B) in revenue (+9.2% YoY), spent $97B on capex (+67.2%), poured $84B into R&D (+12.2%), and held $635B in cash (-3.6%) against $560B in debt (+1.3%). Net PP&E surged 32.9% YoY to nearly $1 trillion. Headcount hit 4.17M, flat YoY. 🔹 Revenue: Growth Concentrated in the Big Four 1Q25 revenue hit $651.6B (+9.2% YoY), pushing annualized sales to $2.65T. Coreweave and Yandex posted the fastest growth, but the heavy lifting came from Alphabet (annualized revenues up 13.1% vs. 2Q23-2Q24), Amazon (+10.1%), Meta (+19.4%), and Microsoft (+14.1%). Amazon added the most dollars: up $12.4B YoY to $155.7B (+8.6%). At the other end: Fujitsu’s revenue dropped 18.7% as it retreats from cloud and data center services. Baidu, eBay, and IBM posted sub-2% growth. 🔹 Capex: AI Hype Sends Spending Soaring Capex skyrocketed 67.2% YoY in 1Q25 to $96.6B, annualizing to $343B, up 65% from a year ago and setting another all-time high. The AI frenzy, sparked by ChatGPT and fanned by investors, is now a dominant force. GPU spend is through the roof. US webscalers are spending like the proverbial drunken sailor, fueled by subsidies and hype, and enabled by what many view is widespread intellectual property theft. Top 1Q25 capex outlays came from Amazon ($25.0B), Alphabet ($17.2B), Microsoft ($16.7B), and Meta ($12.9B. Together, that is 74% of the total. Notably, 58% of annualized capex was for IT/network/software infrastructure (vs. 55% in 1Q24, 49% in 1Q23), showing a focus on retrofitting existing data centers for AI. 🔹 Profitability: Margins Under Pressure from Capex Free cash flow margins dipped to 15.2% in 1Q25 (annualized), down from 18.9% a year earlier. Net profit margins averaged a healthy 20.7% over the last four quarters. Alphabet led with $34.5B in net income (+46% YoY), a political liability as antitrust scrutiny intensifies. Meta, Microsoft, Tencent, and Apple topped the FCF leaderboard. Amazon and Alibaba were mid-tier, while HPE and Baidu brought up the rear. Debt vs. cash positions remain solid overall, but some players (Apple, Oracle, IBM, Coreweave) are deeply leveraged and vulnerable if the AI bubble bursts. 🔹 Employment: Flat Growth, Automation Looms Webscale employment hit 4.17M, up just 0.2% YoY. Alibaba’s 39% headcount drop (via Sun Art divestment) offset growth elsewhere. Despite massive AI investment, workforce growth has plateaued since 2021. Automation and robotics are gaining ground, especially in logistics. We expect modest headcount gains in 2025, then a steady decline. 🔹 Regional Trends: Asia Rebounds Asia-Pacific’s drag is easing: regional revenue grew 7% YoY in 1Q25, narrowing the gap with global growth (+9%). The Americas, Europe, and MEA remain in the low double-digit range. With strong government backing, Tencent and Alibaba are poised to accelerate Asia’s momentum through 2026.

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Our Three Core Offerings

Research

MTNC’s research is focused on communications network infrastructure, a market attracting $3.5 trillion in annual operator revenues. Our goal is to provide credible, holistic assessments of where the NI market currently stands and where it is headed. Reports address market and technology trends, key players, and country dynamics.

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Subscription

MTNC bundles its research into an annual subscription service called “Global Network Infrastructure”. GNI provides clients with an end-to-end view of the network operator business, assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. GNI clients include technology vendors (chips, network equipment and software, IT services), operators, regulators, and investors.

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Consulting

Our consulting services include: scenario planning; market sizing, forecasting, and analysis; organizational strategy; marketing support; competitive benchmarking; and, due diligence support for M&A and PE transactions. We bring experience and independence to the table, and access to the proprietary databases generated by our GNI subscription program.

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Blogs

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Quantifying the energy cost savings from 2G/3G network shutdowns...
Posted by: Samir Ahmad on 18/10/2022

With each passing day, the 2G and 3G layers of telcos' mobile networks are looming as heavy loads on operating expenses (opex). That's due to multiple issues but especially energy consumption and related costs. With the exist

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Telco capital intensity hits 10 year peak in 2Q22...
Posted by: Matt Walker on 06/09/2022

Vendors continue to wrestle with supply chain constraints in the telecom sector. That's clear from several recent vendor earnings reports, including those issued by Dell, HPE, and Ciena in recent weeks. Telco spending, though

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Vendor landscape continues to shift in telecom market as cloud and 5G ...
Posted by: Matt Walker on 29/07/2022

Telco network spending has been on the rise over the last few quarters. Vendor sales of network infrastructure to the telco vertical ("Telco NI”) totaled $55.5B in 1Q22, up 5.7% YoY. On an annualized basis, Telco NI revenue

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Telecom’s top 3 vendors betting big on enterprise expansion; Hua...
Posted by: Matt Walker on 14/06/2022

Telco NI's top 3 Telcos buy products & services from dozens of different vendors. Our research tracks 130. Some are relatively easy to classify into a segment, e.g. Corning, a "cabling & connectivity" vendor in our

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After failure to adapt to 4G, telcos need to evolve...
Posted by: Melvin Bankhead III, Contributing Writer on 19/05/2022

It was the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who coined the phrase, “Change is the only constant in life.” Well over a thousand years later, Benjamin Franklin continued the thought, saying, “When you are finished changing

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Telcos are upgrading their workforce, but it comes at a price...
Posted by: Matt Walker on 11/05/2022

One of the many telecom stats we track is "labor costs", i.e. what telcos spend in salaries and benefits to support their workforce. Not a lot of other analyst firms track labor costs, if any. It's not an easy one to track, a

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Our Research Bundles

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MTN Consulting’s Market Data bundle is designed for clients who need to understand all three types of network operators we track – telecom, webscale, and carrier-neutral. The bundle includes all of our Excel-based Market Review reports tracking these individual operator segments.
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MTN Consulting’s Telecom Network Operator (TNO) bundle provides clients with a deep dive into the telecommunications segment of network operators. The bundle’s products help clients understand how telcos are growing and transforming their operations.
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MTN Consulting’s Webscale Network Operator (WNO) bundle provides a deep look at the webscale segment of network operators – how it’s growing, how individual WNOs are building out their networks, and which suppliers are benefiting.

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