Telco NI vendor growth slips to 2% YoY in 2022

This brief provides a snapshot of preliminary 2022 results for the telco network infrastructure (Telco NI) market. It discusses demand and supply trends in Telco NI based on revenue reports and estimates for 105 active vendors, representing about 75% of the market. Telco NI’s giant, Huawei, has yet to report.

In the last few months, MTN Consulting has noted that network spending was starting to flatten in the telco segment. In 3Q22, telco capex dipped 5% YoY, the first decline since 4Q20. The vendor market also weakened in 3Q22, as Telco NI vendor revenues grew just 2% after seven straight quarters of much stronger growth. Now we have a solid set of preliminary results for 2022’s final three months, 4Q22. For the 105 vendors available, Telco NI revenues fell by 1% YoY in 4Q22; this is the first decline for this group of Telco NI vendors since 2Q20, when COVID shut down economies. For CY2022, Telco NI grew just 2% YoY, down from +9% in 2021, when telcos splurged post-COVID, and the 5G RAN market saw a nice run-up. Among the larger reporting vendors, the best 4Q22 Telco NI growth was recorded at the three cloud providers (AWS, Azure, and GCP); engineering services companies Dycom and MasTec; NEPs Calix, Ciena, Samsung, and Technicolor (now Vantiva). New vendor Rakuten Symphony recorded the best overall growth rate in 4Q22, with revenues of $180M up 193% YoY. On the other side, Cisco, Ericsson, and ZTE saw the worst declines in 4Q22, due in part to a downswing in spend among their largest customers.

For the overall market, some of the decline seen in 4Q22 was inevitable, as telcos slow down their initial 5G network buildouts. Other negatives include higher interest rates, higher energy costs, weak economic growth, cloud alternatives to network builds, and 5G’s inability to deliver services revenue growth. Revenue guidance for 2023 from key vendors suggests a flat to slightly down market, as telcos absorb capacity and continue to wrestle with these challenges. Capex guidance from telcos is consistent.