Telecom’s biggest vendors – 3Q23 edition

The goal of this report series is to equip telecom industry decision-makers with a comprehensive view of spending trends and vendor market power in their industry. To do this we assess technology vendors’ revenues in the telecom vertical, across a wide range of company types and technology segments. We call this market “telco network infrastructure”, or “Telco NI.” This study tracks 134 Telco NI vendors, providing revenue and market share estimates for the 1Q13-3Q23 period. Of these 134 vendors, 110 are actively selling to telcos; most others have been acquired by other companies in the database. For instance, ADVA is now part of Adtran, but both companies remain in the database because of historic sales.

Below are the key highlights of the report:

Revenues: Telco NI vendor revenues were $49.2B in 3Q23 and $217.8B for the annualized 3Q23 period overall, down 14.2% and 7.6% on a YoY basis, respectively. Excluding Huawei, the total market declined by 13.4% in the latest single quarter and by 6.4% in annualized 3Q23 on a YoY baisis.

Top vendors: The top three Telco NI vendors continue to be the usual trio: Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia. They account for 37.4% of the total market in annualized 3Q23, or 35.5% in 3Q23 alone. ZTE and China Comservice have been jostling for the 4th and 5th positions since early 2019.

Key vendors by YoY revenue growth: Three out of the top five vendors are common, in terms of YoY revenue growth, for both single quarter and annualized 3Q23: Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tejas Networks.

Spending outlook: Per our latest official forecast, we expect telco capex – the main driver of the Telco NI market – to dip to $313B in 2023, and decline a bit more to $309B in 2024. Capex will decline slightly further in 2025, though, and then rise modestly again to reach $331B in 2028. Global telco capital intensity will average out to 17.1% in 2028, from 18.4% in 2022.